Interesting stuff

  1. “The government should tax the super rich and burn the money.” Agreed. Listen in. And more by Gary — a very interesting explainer of his background and what to do when society fails.
  2. More podcasts by Gary: How I lost faith in the economists and the rich won’t leave if you tax them, since their wealth is businesses and property!
  3. Trump’s election and affinity for running cons means that the bad actors in crypto are going to get a free pass…. and a lot of people are going to lose money.
  4. Listen to how the Japanese housing policy can help the “housing crisis”
  5. Watch a few lawyers explain how The Onion™ bought InfoWars. This case will be in the legal settlements and auctions textbooks!
  6. Where’s the dirty side of a hurricane? Watch.
  7. How the crazy right (Jordan Peterson et al.) turned the “15 minute city” into a conspiracy. Listen.
  8. “The US republic is, flaws and all, perhaps the most striking success in world history. Is it possible that its strengths are now combining with its weaknesses to overthrow that legacy?“
  9. Listen to an interview with the economist (?) driving bureaucratic reform in Argentina. The discussion can apply to Musk’s DOGE, but this guy had 1.5 years to prepare the reforms; Musk has 1.5 months (and a tiny bit of attention).
  10. Is the U.S. Sleeping on Threats from Russia and China? Yes. Listen.

H/T to GJ

Notes from Tokyo

We spent two weeks in Tokyo in October. (We had “seen the country” in 2017, so this stay was more about this mega-metropolis.)

Here are four takeaways:

Preserve the beauty of the damaged!

First, Japan is not a country of zen-aesthetics. Marie Kondo first got famous inside Japan because they have so much clutter. This article explains how Edo-era Japan* was so “circular” (reusing and repairing everything) because they had so few resources and were not trading (more below). When Japan opened to the world, and caught up, and got rich, then the Japanese indulged themselves as much as Americans would with consumption. The only reason they don’t consume even more is — as in the Netherlands — a lack of cheap space. Read more here.

…or just buy more crap?

Second, I was confused about how the Americans forced Japan to open up to trade — via the Black ships of 1853 — when trade is supposed to be a voluntary, “win-win” proposition. This summary from Perplexity explains that the Americans gave itself favorable terms of trade, etc., which is why the Japanese did not benefit as much as they would have with (really) free trade. What’s a bit ironic (or karmic) is how the American navy bullied Japan in 1853 and the Japanese navy returned the favor in 1941 (but without ultimate success). Now that all of that history is “under the bridge” (in terms of political rhetoric — see Xi’s ongoing complains about “the century of humiliation” for a counterpoint), Japan and the US are best buds.

Spin, Japanese style.

Third, the Japanese are very risk averse, perhaps due to a history of natural disasters, perhaps due to a history of getting your head cut off for making a mistake. The result, culturally, is extreme planning (more than even the Dutch!) to ensure that everything is mapped out and discussed ahead of time. So the bullet trains have never had an accident, but that’s also a sign of taking too few chances. This risk-averse culture also explains how the Japanese public get very upset when the government screws up — e.g., taking 13 years to admit to the Minamata poisoning or the badly-handled Fukushima accident (more people died from the evacuation than the radiation). I’m not saying that government’s should be happy about mistakes, but they should be a little more humble about errors.

The future of biking safely?

Fourth, the Japanese are almost as enthusiastic about cars as Americans, but they also avoid over-doing it. So cars are ubiquitous, and roads are designed for cars rather than bikes. We enjoyed the freedom of biking, but (a) had to fight with Google maps, which kept directing us off calm streets and towards major roads and (b) constantly needed to go around cars and trucks double parked in bike lanes. Watch this video for the pros and cons of Tokyo’s urban design.

Bottom line: Japan’s culture and history need time to understand and appreciate.

H/T to SC

*Bonus: I was really surprised to learn that daytime hours – the actual length of an hour — in Edo-Japan were longer in summer and shorter in winter, since daylight was evenly allocated among the same number of hours. This clock face shows how the “duration” of an hour was adjusted as the season progressed. The Meiji Restoration (more like a revolution!) brought 60 minute hours… and Seiko watches!

Interesting stuff

  1. When Idiot Savants Do Climate Economics, aka, we’re all gonna die (well, 90%) because of these idiots.
  2. Listen to Musa al-Gharbi on Elite Wokeness (too many underemployed humanities majors?)
  3. Watch for the 6 reasons Europe is “going down” [use subs] (not much discussion of why it’s not that bad, but let’s stay critical 🙂
  4. Listen: How fraudsters are bilking the us government out of billions of dollars
  5. Listen to this interview with Robert Caro, author of the Power Broker.
  6. Watch Gary explain how rent, interest and profits are all the same thing 🙂
  7. Listen and think about the fertility “crisis,” which is maybe a decent way to get to sustainability. (I disagree with Neil about abortion; still an occasional twat).
  8. Watch: Robert Putnam on building communities to save democracy
  9. We’ve lost 1200 km3 of fresh water (due to over-use) since 2015… and freshwater scarcity will only get worse…
  10. We’re blowing way past +1.5C (it’s +1.64 right now), so mitigation is failing. Adapt adapt adapt!

Solutions for a salty future

Liliana writes*

In September 2023, residents of New Orleans, Louisiana had salt water coming out of their taps (Sneath, 2023). The city declared a state of emergency as a “salt water wedge” moved up the Mississippi River from the Gulf of Mexico. Although the crisis was averted, the underlying issues remain for the city.

The source of the issue is clear: there is more room in the river and less fresh water to fill it. Much of the Mississippi lies below sea level in Louisiana, meaning that without enough fresh water flow, the river is vulnerable to salt water intrusion (NOLA). As yearly droughts increase in severity with global warming, the river’s flow is sometimes insufficient to stop the underflow of denser salt water (NOLA). Exacerbating this, the US Army Corps has dredged the Mississippi to increase cargo clearance for decades (Bliss and Hirji, 2023). Their most recent large-scale project in 2022, deepened parts of the river by 5 feet (1.5m), to 50 feet (15m) (Bliss and Hirji, 2023). These efforts have been touted as an economic success, allowing the Mississippi River Ship Channel to expand the already 450 million tons of exports that travel the route. However, with decreasing fresh water flow and rising sea levels as a result of climate change, these rewards are not worth the risks.

Salt water intrusion causes harm across every sector. For humans, high sodium concentrations can increase blood pressure (Chow, 2023). Salt water is much more corrosive than fresh water and could cause harmful chemicals to leach from pipes into drinking supply. Nearly all piping in New Orleans is made with lead, so corrosion could introduce serious public health risks, as was seen in Flint, Michigan (Chow, 2023). Salt can also corrode infrastructure, which could cost the city millions to replace. Finally, soil health and agricultural output would be at risk with farmers literally salting the earth (Chow, 2023).

Solutions vary. Current containment methods include constructing underwater sills (Bliss and Hirji, 2023). As salt water is much more dense than fresh water, the intrusion travels in the shape of a wedge along the base of the riverbed. Thus, what are essentially walls can be built along the riverbed to ensure that the wedge does not travel further upstream (see figure). Holes in the sills allow continued commerce along the river. Although effective short-term, this solution is unsustainable as it ignores the problem’s root causes and requires new sills each time the salt water wedge grows.

Source: Army Corps of Engineers

Other solutions include pumping water into the city, either from a pipeline constructed upstream or through a desalination plant (NOLA). Lastly, some propose new management of the city’s aquifers, currently drained annually during the rainy season as flood prevention. Instead, some suggest an increase in green spaces to mitigate the issue of floods and the use of the aquifer for drinking water (Sabo, 2023). This is a much more long-term solution but requires significant infrastructure changes. A combination of all the ideas mentioned above will likely constitute the city’s mitigation methods.

Bottom line: In New Orleans, the Mississippi River has far too much depth and not enough freshwater flow to fill it. As a result, salt water is infiltrating the city’s water supply, posing serious health and infrastructure risks. A variety of solutions including pumping water into the city and the construction of sills must manage these threats.

* Please help my Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice 🙂

Clash between city and countryside

Mirjam writes*

Munich’s drinking water is known for its high quality, largely thanks to its geographic location near the Bavarian Alps. About 75% of the 330 million liters consumed daily comes from the Mangfall Valley, south of the city, which has served as Munich’s water source for over 130 years. However, this reliance has led to an enduring conflict with the local community of Miesbach.

Despite the exceptional water quality – so pure it requires chlorination on only a few days each year – Munich plans to expand the water protection zones in Miesbach to add a third zone. The city refers to legal obligations and the need to secure water quality for future generations. Thinking long-term is crucial, especially given the natural water cycle: in the Mangfall Valley, it takes about 20 years for rainwater to percolate through the ground before being extracted. This means that changes in the use of fertilizers or pesticides might impact the water quality only decades later.

Resistance from the Miesbach community

Farmers, entrepreneurs, and other stakeholders in Miesbach oppose the proposed protection zone. If implemented, the zone would further restrict the use of fertilizers and pesticides, as well as complicate the approval process for construction and industrial projects.

However, it’s worth noting that cooperation between Munich and local farmers has been ongoing for years. Since 1992, the Munich City Utilities (SWM) have supported farmers in transitioning to organic agriculture. To date, over 185 farms have adopted sustainable practices. In return, they receive financial assistance and support in marketing their products.

Still, tensions persist. To block Munich’s plans, Miesbach community members recently launched a petition calling for a review of the city’s historical water rights that were granted in 1852. These rights, still invoked by the SWM, are seen as outdated by Miesbach residents, especially since the construction of a connection tunnel in 1924 increased water extraction. Threfore they argue that the law should be reevaluated.

In early November 2024, the Bavarian State Parliament’s environmental committee accepted the petition, signaling progress for the Miesbach community. However, the review of these historical rights could delay any decision on the new protection zone – to the frustration of environmental groups.

A broader debate: balancing urban and rural interests

The conflict over Munich’s water supply reflects a larger issue: how to reconcile urban resource security with the interests of rural communities and environmental conservation. With projections suggesting that by 2050, approximately 70% of the global population will live in urban areas, and with water scarcity expected to increase due to climate change and human impacts on ecosystems, disputes like the one between Munich and Miesbach may become increasingly common.

Finding solutions will require balancing the needs of urban populations with respect for rural livelihoods and ecosystems. The challenge lies in creating policies that protect the environment and secure resources for future generations while ensuring fairness for all parties involved.

Bottom line: The dispute over Munich’s water supply rights and water protection regulations highlights the growing tension between urban needs and rural rights, a challenge that will likely intensify as climate change and urbanization progress.

* Please help my Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice 🙂

Protecting the Meuse from pollution

Merel writes*

The Meuse River, after which Maastricht is named, has important values for both humans and nature. Around 7 million people rely on drinking water from the Meuse River. However, the river is facing growing threats from water scarcity and pollution. Although the Netherlands is famous for their water management, these growing pressures are highlighting the urgent need for more action.

The Meuse flows from France through Belgium and the Netherlands and is an important source of drinking water, agriculture, industry, shipping, and ecosystems. In regions along the Meuse, including Maastricht, the river also has recreational and cultural values, and each year, it supplies around 500 billion litres of drinking water to Belgium and the Netherlands (NRC, 2024). However, pollution and climate change impacts are straining the river’s capacity to provide enough clean water.

The quality of water in the Meuse is under increased pressure because of pollution from agriculture, industry, and sewage systems. Harmful substances like pesticides, fertilizers, pharmaceutical residues, heavy metals, and PFAS are damaging water quality. Industry discharges their wastewater through sewage or directly into the river water. They need a permit for this, but many permits are outdated and often fail to account for new pollutants. These outdated permits, lacking transparency, allow industries to release harmful substances without proper oversight. RIWA-Maas, an association of Dutch drinking water companies, warns that these inadequate regulations endanger water quality, affecting both ecosystems and public health (NRC, 2024).

PFAS are a particular concern due to their long persistence and harmful health impacts, at even very low concentrations (RIWA-Meuse, 2024).

Additionally, longer and more frequent droughts also affect water quality in the Meuse, which is mostly fed by precipitation (RIWA-Meuse, 2024). Chemical discharges that are assumed to be sufficiently diluted with normal river levels are not when levels drop and concentrations persist. Drinking water companies such as WML in Limburg face higher purification costs or the need to rely on scarcer groundwater sources (WML, 2024).

Water knows no borders, and pollution in one area impacts regions downstream. Therefore, international cooperation is important. The International Meuse Commission, established in 2002, brings together France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg to improve water quality and manage flood risks in the Meuse. Through joint pollution standards, they aim to limit agricultural and industrial waste entering the river.

In the Netherlands, lots of different governmental organizations work together manage the water systems, such as Rijkswaterstaat, water boards (waterschappen), provinces, municipalities and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat, 2024).

In Europe, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) has set goals for water quality, both chemically and ecologically, with a deadline in 2027 (after postponing twice). It seems it seems very likely that many Dutch water bodies, including the Meuse, will not be able to meet the targets on time. This delay highlights the pressing need for stronger action against pollution and more sustainable water management practices. Meeting the WFD goals is crucial not only for ecosystems but also for ensuring safe drinking water and protecting communities that rely on rivers like the Meuse (Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat, 2024a).

Both nationally and internationally, we need better enforcement of regulation. Additionally, we need to modernize discharge permits to include  new pollutants and ban PFAS altogether.

Bottom Line: The Meuse River is increasingly vulnerable to water scarcity and pollution. Addressing these challenges requires international cooperation and innovative approaches, and a shift in perspective – moving from fighting against the water to living in harmony together with clean water and nature, free from harmful substances.

* Please help my Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice 🙂

Glasgow

Alex writes*

Glasgow is predicted to be Scotland’s fastest growing city for the next three years in terms of population and urban development (Scottish Financial Review, 2024). Four million people — 42% of Scotland’s population — live in the city and its surroundings (World Population Review, 2024). Current population and future growth are threatening the waters needed by Glasgow’s people and environment.

Glasgow’s population has seen minimal water source struggles, with little documentation on any sorts of related conflicts. The city had historically used the river Clyde, but quality deteriorated around 1800 and frequent cholera outbreaks forced the city to source its water from Loch Katrine in 1855, which improved quality (Institution of Civil Engineers, 2024).

Moving to modern times, leaks and aging pipes are reducing supply. Scottish Water claims to have “reduced leakage from 1,100 ML/d to 460 ML/d over the last 18 years” (Scottish Water, 2024), but population pressures are increasing, which could lead to conflicts over water allocation and availability in the future.

This outdated and leaky water system also threatens natural water bodies. Knightswood Park is an important green area for residents. Its iconic Knightswood pond provides both recreation and natural habitat (Glasgow City Council, 2024). But pond levels have been dropping for the past five summers and will probably also drop in 2025 (Ava Whyte, 2024). It was rumored that a leak was the cause of falling levels, but the Glasgow City council is still investigating. Residents are upset that swans and coots are pressured to leave or be relocated: “The swans couldn’t fly as they were moulting and had no flight feathers, they were dehydrated and had no natural food” (Ava Whyte, 2024).­

Bottom Line: Glasgow’s water system is outdated. It needs to be upgraded to meet growing urbanization while preventing environmental degradation. Can Glasgow balance urban demand with the needs of nature?

* Please help my Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice 🙂

Is the Segura River sustainable?

Ari writes*

The autonomous region of Murcia in the south-east of Spain exports a lot of crops. Murcia occupies 2.2% of Spain but produces 20% of its vegetable and fruit exports. This region has a population of 1.5 million and a long growing season.

Murcia’s watershed is the Segura River is the driest in the European Union, with an annual rainfall of 365mm. Murcia experienced a higher demand for its fruits and vegetables after Spain joined the EU, increasing water stress and environmental degradation (GWP).

The Segura River Project proposed to restore the watershed’s health and supply reclaimed water to the agricultural sector (GWP). One hundred wastewater treatment plants were built alongside a 350 km waste-water collecting system in 2001-2010. The EU provided 70% of the €650 million cost; a regional Wastewater Reclamation Levy paid for the remaining capital and ongoing operating costs (IWRM Action Hub).

The project improved water quality in the Segura River. In 2010, the water pollution was unnoticeable, and otters returned to their former habitats. The agricultural sector in Murcia received 110 million m3 of reclaimed water annually (GWP).

The Segura River Project restored the quality of the river, but can it be maintained? This question arises because the Tagus-Segura water transfer, which began in 1979, brings 600hm3/year from the Tagus to Murcia for irrigation and drinking (Tercera Del Gobierno). Since the Tagus River, which brings water to Portugal, is stressed, it is doubtful that the transfers can continue at past volumes.

* Please help my Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice 🙂

Jakarta: The Drowning Giant

Jonathan writes*

Jakarta’s water distribution systems faces an existential threat. While 13 watersheds converge in Jakarta’s basin, only 1% of Jakarta’s surface water is utilized by its water distribution system due to high contamination (Ardhianie et al., 2021). Instead, the vast majority (67%) of the city’s water originates from groundwater reservoirs (Ardhianie et al., 2021). And excessive groundwater pumping threatens the city’s very existence.

Jakarta is one of the world’s fastest sinking cities, dropping by 1-15 centimeters per year. Experts project that 95% of the city will be underwater by 2050 (Jakarta…). Removal of groundwater results in increased compaction of soil, reducing the stability of the silty and sandy land and increasing soil erosion (Bakr, 2015).

These extraction woes originate from PAM Jaya’s (Jakarta’s water company) lack of distribution. Most Jakarta residents do not contract with PAM Jaya, instead taking groundwater from their own wells in ignorance or defiance of regulations. Whincup et al. (2023), using a conservative estimate of 30% of the population having a artisanal well, estimated that 300,000+ artisanal wells extract roughly 3000 Liters/second; 4,000+ illegal deep drill wells take even more.

PAM Jaya is trying to solve this issue by increasing the availability of piped water to the people of Jakarta. In 2024, PAM Jaya set out a goal of piping 71,207 households by the end of the year, ultimately aiming to have the entirety of Jakarta connected to its water grid by 2030 (PAM Jaya Kebut). It is also attempting to increase its overall water distribution capacity and the quality of the water provided through pipes, to incentivize usage. The company has been building more pumps and feeds directly extracting water from outside rivers such as the Jatiluhur to improve supply (PAM Jaya Perluas) and also contracted PT Air Bersih Indonesia (PT ABI, or “Clean Water Indonesia”) to build a new water treatment plant and more pipe connections (World’s Fastest…).

However, PAM Jaya faces multiple challenges to its objective. Most visibly, PAM Jaya has had numerous issues regarding the quality of its services. 50% of the water transported by PAM Jaya winds up leaking out of the system (Whincup et al., 2013). PAM Jaya water is also often contaminated or undrinkable due to mismanaged infrastructure, adding to the attraction of free groundwater (World’s Fastest…). Finally, the recent deal with PT ABI was criticized for its lack of transparency and failing to solve poorly maintained piping infrastructure and water contamination (World’s Fastest…).

Bottom Line: Jakarta is irreversibly sinking in part due to excessive unregulated groundwater use. Governmental efforts to solve this are extensive, but marred by a variety of issues regarding quality and regulation.

* Please help my Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice 🙂

The cow in the room

Ĺ tevo writes*

The European Union is not on the path to carbon neutrality within the Paris Agreement goals, not only because of a lack of sufficient carbon pricing and green investments, but also due to its subsidies for unsustainable sectors with high greenhouse gas emissions. The Dutch, for example, give €40 billion of subsidies for fossil fuels.

While removing subsidies for fossil fuels is crucial for reaching Dutch sustainable goals, there’s a need to focus on subsidies for animal agriculture. In the EU, animal farming, creates more emissions than all cars and vans together. This result is partially due to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which accounts for one-third of the EU budget. More than half of the CAP goes to animal agriculture. The situation is similar in the Netherlands. Ten percent of Dutch GHG emissions come from animal farming, but that sector gets more subsidies than plant-based agriculture.

Support for animal farming is also counterproductive because animal-based foods increase rates of heart disease, diabetes, cancer and obesity. Finally, there is the moral case against slaughtering almost a billion animals per year in the Netherlands, to deliver blood-soaked calories.

Politicians know farmers do not like their sustainability policies after many protests. Action to remove animal agriculture subsidies brings political opposition and risks reviving the flagging popularity of the Dutch farmer’s party (BoerBurgerBeweging), but it’s necessary for achieving sustainability in the Dutch agricultural sector.

An end to subsidies would remove one-third of the animal farmers’ incomes, which could be compensated by increasing prices. Those higher prices would function as a carbon tax by encouraging customers to move towards (relatively) cheaper plant-based products.

Some animal farmers would also be forced to end their operations without subsidies, so the EU should use redirect saved money towards helping them transition to more sustainable plant-based farming.

Bottom line: The EU and the Dutch government are giving almost a billion euros of unsustainable and immoral subsidies (which also promote unhealthy diets) to animal agriculture in the Netherlands every year. If these subsidies were removed, plant-based foods would see an increase in consumption; that higher demand could be met by redirecting animal-farming subsidies to farmers growing more plant crops.

* Please help my Environmental Economics students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice :).