Eve writes*
Borders establish limitations, separations between political regimes, economic opportunities and resource rights. So how do we deal with the allocation of trans-border goods?
Colonial agreements, climate change and increasing demographics are all contributing factors to the tensions revolving around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
This is a case study about Cairo, we could hence wonder why an innovative project in Ethiopia could create such concern to all of Egypt? Well, GERD threatens the source of, according to Egypt Today, 95% of Egypt’s water.
A non-negligible fact is understanding the colonial 1959 agreement that “entitles” Egypt and Sudan to 55.5 Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) and 18.5 BCM of Nile water, respectively (Nashar).
Growing population contributes to Cairo’s water scarcity and food insecurity. Abdelkader says that Egypt is the most populous country in MENA (Middle East and North Africa), with a population of 92 million and a population growth rate of 2 percent.
Indeed, more people imply more mouths to feed and lives to sustain, hence increasing demand and further accentuating the need for supply. The later, hence increases reliance on this Egyptian watershed, a dependency that is not complementary to decreased water flows, due to the GERD. As the matter of fact, the filling of the reservoir is a primary concern linked to the dam. Though the filling time remains unpredictable, estimations vary from 3 to 7 years. The British Journal of Applied Science & Technology predicts that the Nile’s flow will decrease by 12-25% during this period.
The country is already food and water scarce. Currently, according to Falkenmark (1989), Egypt’s renewable per capita water resources of 630 m3 per year are already too low for food self-sufficiency. Indeed, the Nile plays a crucial role in Cairo’s economy. As mentioned by Abebe, 2014 the River provides almost 86% of Egypt’s freshwater for agriculture and benefits industrial production and sewage treatment.
However, it’s not all negative: the GERD could have numerous benefits on Sudan and Egypt. Tesfa’s research concludes that the GERD could remove up to 86% of silt and sedimentation, regulating the flow year-round and reducing flood risks.
Can we hope for cooperation? As we face the global issue of climate change and increasing population threats in countries such as Egypt, the need for regional cooperation rises. Water management issues demand cooperation between the Nile Basin states. Proposed adaptation strategies by Dr. El-Din suggest mutually beneficial adaptation strategies along the borders of the riparian countries, by the means of which water distribution corresponds to trade in water intensive goods, for example food and hydroelectricity. Cooperation could help everyone.
Bottom Line: The agriculturally dependent Egyptian society of Cairo faces food and water scarcity as unpredictable changes, due to the GERD, modify the flow of the River Nile.
* Please help my Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice 🙂
Dear Eve,
I really enjoyed reading about the tensions among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Clearly, the project has sparked a dispute over Ethiopia’s development needs, versus Egypt’s concerns over water scarcity, population growth and climate change. To my understanding, Egypt and Ethiopia do not have a formal water-sharing agreement, is that correct? I think this would have been nice to clarify at the start.
Additionally, it could be interesting to add that the Egyptian government is insisting on a slow fill of 12 to 20 years to prevent major challenges to Egypt’s water security, but the Ethiopian government insists on completing the process within 6 years in order to increase its capacity to generate power (as half of Ethiopia’s population has no access to electricity). The charged issue of the dam demonstrates the contradictory interests of both parties in water resource use, which is critical to the national security of the two countries. Perhaps, a coordinated strategy is needed that allows the Dam to meet water demands in Egypt during periods of prolonged scarcity/drought and increase hydropower generation in Ethiopia during high flows.
Overall, your blogpost was a truly fascinating read. Thank you so much for sharing!
Melissa
Interesting topic, water conflicts are always worth observing.
You talk about the colonial entitlement of Egypt and Sudan to Nile water, however not about Ethiopian entitlement. Are they legally entitled to any of the water? If so how much in comparison to their downstream neighbours?
You ask in your post whether we can hope for cooperation, but never give an answer. I understand that it is hard to predict the actions of the nations, but I’m interested in your opinion. Do you think the countries will be able to find an agreement?