How is Ukraine different?

Some people claim that the West’s reaction to Russia’s attack on Ukraine is hypocritical (the NATO “defense alliance” has been involved in a few offensive campaigns) or racist (the West’s support for Ukrainian refugees is stronger than it was for Syrian refugees), but I think it’s much easier to explain, as the first invasion with a goal of conquering and annexing territory since WWII.

What about wars in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq? “Operations” in America’s sphere of influence (Haiti, El Salvador, etc.)? “Actions” by other, formerly imperial powers (France in west Africa, the UK in the Falklands, etc.)?

None of these were about annexation. Most were attempts to topple governments, but none (IIRC) were about (successfully) installing a puppet government. There was always the veneer of democracy and self-rule.

That’s not true in Ukraine now, just like it was not true in September 1939, when Hitler and Stalin divided Poland.

So people are right to say “this is different” in comparison with the previous 75 years. (Please comment if I’m wrong.)*

Ukrainians, otoh, have been trolling pretty hard.

Now WHY is this different. There are many articles floating around about Putin’s psychology, Soviet-nostalgia and potential mental deterioration, but I find the “he fooled himself” story to be the most plausible, i.e., that Putin started to believe the disinformation that he’s be peddling for years:

The upshot is that the most powerful man in Russia is making bad moves because his staff is either too stupid (because loyalty is paramount) or scared (of getting “suicided”) to correct his perspectives. That was also true of Putin’s hero, Stalin.

It’s also true that he may be making these bad moves because he has become accustomed to inflicting pain on others (Syria, Georgia, Turkey) in geopolitical “tests” that provide short-term stimulation but do nothing to restore Russian power — a step that could only happen when there’s a collective goal (the Soviets had this) rather that the individualistic goal of glorifying Putin.

How will this end? My one-handed conclusion is that it will only end with Putin getting a (potentially fatal) “reality check.” The real question is whether that will happen before, during or after a (world?) war that costs millions of lives.

H/T to NN

*Exceptions: Israel’s taking the Golan heights, Gaza strip, West bank / East Jerusalem (1967/73) and China seizing Tibet (1950). Israel’s seizure is a bit tricky (invasion? counter-offensive?), but the Tibet example is clear (and worrying with respect to Taiwan).

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Author: David Zetland

I'm a political-economist from California who now lives in Amsterdam.

4 thoughts on “How is Ukraine different?”

  1. I dare say that the 2003-2011 Iraq War would seem, at least at a first glance, to have some broad similiaries: installation of a friendly government, with an estimated 151,000 to 1,033,000 deaths.

    1. But that war didn’t end in 2011… and it’s hardly over now, and the US is mostly gone.

  2. Even though the Ukrainian military is getting massive public and international support, and even though the Russians have so far failed to meet the high expectations that came with their military superiority (due to lack of combat experience, morality issues, underestimations, etc.), Russia’s one million people strong army (with an additional 2 million in reserves), will surely overpower the government in Kiev (It is hard to overlook the similarities with this war and the war in Georgia). I fail to see a scenario in which this war will not end with Putin in a more unstable power position both abroad and domestically, yet Putin will be able to claim victory once he has captured Kiev.

    1. (1) Russia never took over Tbilisi, so that’s a “capital problem”

      (2) Kiev is going to be fiercely defended, maybe even if Putin pulls a “Rotterdam” — so I doubt the Russians will take it.

      (3) Even if they do, then Russia is facing decades of internal opposition (cf., Afghanistan I and II, Iraq, Vietnam)

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