Brad writes*
Gainsborough is a small town in rural Lincolnshire, England. Their drinking water is supplied by Anglian Water. By geographic area, they are the largest water company in England and are responsible for supplying water utilities to nearly 7 million people in the agricultural heart of the country.
Unfortunately, the Environmental Agency has designated the region as one of the most water stressed in the country, with it seeing less than 700mm of rain annually (Met Office 2016). The task of maintaining a reliable water supply is already quite a challenge for the company in these conditions. However, the region is the fastest growing in the UK and, with droughts becoming more frequent (UKCEH 2024), maintaining this supply over the next 25 years will only add to the challenge.
Currently Gainsborough gets all of its water from the Sherwood Sandstone aquifer, the UK’s 2nd most important aquifer according to the Environmental Agency, and the regional demand is forecast to marginally increase in 25 years. The challenge for Anglian Water in Gainsborough is that the amount of water they can abstract from the aquifer will be capped below their current rates by 2030 to meet the Environmental Agency’s sustainability goals, sending the region into a deficit at current demands.
Anglian Water can tackle this deficit from the supply-side or the demand-side, but demand-side approaches seem to offer more hope.
Anglian Water has two supply-side solutions: increase the capacity of the existing borehole, or transfer water from outside the region. Due to oil drilling in the area, there is hydrocarbon pollution that is preventing the borehole from being fully utilised. The company’s solution uses activated charcoal filters and installing extra pumps to remove the pollution and distribute the extra water. This solution will not increase the supply by as much as transferring water, so it is ranked as least preferable.
Demand-side solutions to the forecast water deficit may work better. These are reducing leakage, rolling out smart meters, and using technology and interventions to increase water efficiency. These proposed solutions are not unique to the Gainsborough region, instead they apply to the company’s whole service area – namely addressing leakage as it accounts for 15.4% of total demand. The Figure below shows that Gainsborough is only a small part of Anglian Water’s total coverage, and is an area at a comparably low risk of water deficit.

A recent meeting with Ofwat, Anglian Water’s regulator, about pricing for the next 5 years shows that the regulator mostly agrees with the early plans to improve its networks by approving a large increase in the company’s allowance. The main disagreement comes from how Anglian Water wishes to recover its costs: with the company preferring to recover more of them from current customers, and Ofwat arguing that it will be unfair to customers.
Bottom line: Gainsborough faces the threat of water scarcity. However, those responsible for supplying water know about it well in advance and already have plans in motion to prevent issues of scarcity. It is too early to say if the company will be successful in its plans, or even deliver on its promises but confidence from the regulator says there is at least some hope for the region.
* Please help my Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice 🙂